Hello, Exiles! XXXX here, once again sharing some tips for Path of Exile (POE). Today, I’ll be answering the question: When is the best time to buy POE Orbs? The simple answer is anytime you need them for something in-game, but if you really want more bang for your buck, pay close attention. I’ll be sharing some stats that influence pricing based on recent expansion announcements and releases that shows the best and worst times to buy orbs. I’ll also show some stats on how the quantity of orbs purchased at one time also influences pricing and note the most cost-effective amount to purchase. Finally, I’ll share a few fun facts from the data provided to me that I found to be quite interesting. Let’s get into it!
Price vs. Expansion and League Releases
The average cost per orb is directly affected by when expansions are announced or released. Observe the following chart:
The Prophecy League was announced on May 20, 2016. Prior to that announcement, the average price per orb wasjust under $1.00 USD. Two days after the announcement was made, average prices jumped up to $1.75 per orb, but settled back down to under $1.00 USD after May 24. The announcement may have fuelled speculation around the items to be released or used in the expansion, namely the Silver Coins, which were central to the Prophecy League.
On its June 3, 2016 release, the average price per orb skyrocketed to $5.00 USD. One theory I have for this increase is that the trading economy was disrupted because prophecies in the league can be sealed and traded to other characters. Also, so-called “Fated” uniques are only available through prophecies, which could influence the average price. After a week, prices started to stabilize to the $3.00 USD mark, before falling further back to the $1.00 USD mark by the end of the month.
Now, check out this trend chart measuring the average price of orbs dating from February 1, 2016, to August 25, 2017:
The horizontal axis notes the date, and the vertical axis notes the orb pricing. You can see from the above that a pricing pattern exists. Prior to the expansion’s release, the price of orbs falls to its lowest levels, indicated by the red circles. When the expansion or league releases, prices skyrocket. This pattern has been quite consistent for the last year and a half, so it’s hard not to imagine the same effect happening when the next league or expansion will be released. From the data above, the best times to buy orbs would be a week or two before the release of the expansion or league.
Price vs. Quantity Purchased
Expansion and league releases aren’t the only factors that can influence the price of orbs; the quantity purchased at one time also affects. Check out this chart:
The horizontal axis notes the quantity of orbs purchased at one time, while the vertical axis notes the average price per orb. The area circled in red represents the ideal quantity of orbs to be purchasedat the lowest value. Globally, the price per orb is cheapest when 50 are bought at once, at an average of $1.05 USD per orb.
Interesting Fun Facts
The data provided to me for the above analysis on pricing were given to me by PlayerAuctions. From their data, I’ve also noticed the following, which I found interesting:
- Exalted orbs are, on average, nearly 250% more expensive in the Hardcore league than in the Standard league. This is possibly due to the Hardcore league’s permadeath function – your character is sent back to the Standard league if he or she dies in Hardcore, which is also the same with Divine orbs.
- Interestingly, the opposite is true for Chance and Blessed orbs; they are actually more expensive in the Standard league than in the Hardcore League.
- Chaos, Chromatic and Alteration orbs exhibit no significant change in their pricing.
- Folks in the United States of America account for half of the total orbs purchased, with more than 80% of Blessed orbs and 75% of Regal orbs being bought by American players.
If you’re looking to take advantage of the stats above, I suggest you take a look at PlayerAuctions’ POE currency market.
See you on the battlefield!